Two weeks is a lot of time to analyze in the sporting world. While it allows for every possible scenario of a game to be broken down, it can also sometimes mask the obvious.
I’ll provide some clarity:
The Indianapolis Colts will win Super Bowl XLIV.
For starters, the Colts have the firepower to match the Saints’ top-ranked offense. They were ninth in total offense during the regular season, a stat that was boosted by the NFL’s second-best passing attack. And for those who question their 32nd-ranked rushing attack, well, it didn’t hinder them from becoming just the third team in league history to begin a season at 14-0.
While the offenses garner the attention, there’s still the adage that defense wins championships. The Colts are a better team on the defensive side of the ball than they were when they won the Super Bowl in 2007 (from No. 21 overall to No. 18) and are giving up over three fewer points per game than they did that season (from 22.5 to 19.2). Even with Dwight Freeney’s injury possibly hampering the Colts’ defense, the Saints were only 25th in total defense and gave up an average of 21.3 points per game. And keep in mind that Peyton Manning was the MVP of Super Bowl XLI while going against a Chicago Bears’ defense that ranked fifth.
Speaking of Manning, he enters the game battle-tested from these playoffs, having gone through the Jets’ No. 1 and Ravens’ No. 3 defenses and gauging them for a combined 623 yards, five touchdowns and only one interception. In the AFC Championship game, against the Jets’ top-ranked pass defense, which had allowed only eight touchdowns the entire season, he threw three, while passing for 377 yards, more than doubling the average against the Jets’ of 153.7 per game.
There is also historical significance to a second Super Bowl victory for Manning as he would become the 11th quarterback in NFL history to win at least two Super Bowls joining Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana (4 each), Troy Aikman and Tom Brady (3) and Jim Plunkett, Bart Starr, Ben Roethlisberger, Bob Griese, Roger Staubach and John Elway (2). Of those 10, only Brady and Roethlisberger, who are still active, and Plunkett are not in the Hall of Fame and Manning has always had a fond appreciation for the history of the game and his place in it.
If these factors weren’t enough of a problem, the Saints also have history working against them.
Two times in the past four years an NFC team has made its first appearance in the Super Bowl and gone on to lose. Overall, 27 different franchises have played in at least one Super Bowl and only eight have been victorious in their first game.
If that wasn’t enough, the Colts Super Bowl in 2007 victory followed the Steelers championship in 2006. Your 2009 Super Bowl champion: those same Pittsburgh Steelers.
Sunday’s game will know doubt be a thrilling offensive show, but the result will be 2007 all over again.
Let the record show, Matt, that you are 0-1 on Super Bowl predictions since we started the blog.
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