Five Gut Instincts in this Year's March Madness

By Bob Herman

This is, perhaps, one of the greatest sports weeks of the year. Selection Sunday was a joy fest as Greg Gumbel so eloquently rattled off every one of the 65 teams who will square off in the NCAA Tournament.

Tonight officially commenced the race to Indianapolis, and it took off with a bang to say the least (well, for those who give a crap about the play-in game). A scrappy University of Arkansas-Pine Bluff team, which lost 11 straight to begin its seemingly inauspicious year, took down Winthrop and will now face Duke.

UAPB is now 18-15, has won 17 of its last 21, and so far is the epitome of a Cinderella that Matt referenced last week (somewhat). How is that not a sign of things to come?

Now, I may not be as cool at Joe Lunardi or as lucky as, well, anyone, but everyone has gut instincts. While I will dutifully exclude Butler from this list to avoid any sort of jinx (...ok, ok, I have them going to the Final Four, but that's all I'm saying), here are five of my big gut instincts for this year's tournament:

1. North Texas (15-seed) will take down Kansas State (2-seed) in the first round.

KSU is really limping into this tournament, losing three of its last five (yeah, yeah, yeah, two of those were to Kansas; but if you can't beat the best once out of two times, then that's a sign). North Texas, on the other hand, has won its last 11 (albeit against creme puffs). We haven't seen a 2-seed fall in the first round since in a good nine years. If there were to be a 2-seed to go down, it most certainly seems like Kansas State would be that team. UNT is a good free-throw shooting team and have solid players in George Odufuwa and Josh White; KSU's biggest momentum was before 2010 started (they team was 12-1 pre-new year)--this seems so right.

2. The mythical "12-seed defeating 5-seed" game will be Utah State over Texas A&M.

The Pomeroy rankings have the Aggies only winning 48 percent of the time over...well...the other Aggies of Utah State. This is an unintentional rip on the Big XII so far, but Utah State can put up points, while A&M is not all that effective in stopping teams defensively. Utah State is the most efficient offensive team in the country--put them up against an average defense at best, and this appears to be the closest thing to a no-brainer among the 5-12 matchups.

3. The Big East will be the most productive team in the tournament.

Yes, they got the most bids, but this is in terms of who will advance the farthest. As of right now, I can easily see four Big East schools making it to the Elite Eight (five, if you count Syracuse over Butler...). This conference is spread out all over the bracket, so when it's all said and done, the Big East should be making the most noise.

4. Purdue will not lose in the first round.

Siena might be the trendiest pick I've heard thus far. Yes, we get it. Robbie Hummel is out for the year, and Purdue now doesn't have their true offensive anchor.

Honestly, that's a load of bull. The offense runs just as much through JaJuan Johnson as it does Hummel, and E'Twaun Moore and the other guards are still more than capable of running a basketball (the Minnesota game was an anomaly...Moore will not shoot 1-14 again, and his ankle is fine). If Purdue clogs the middle and prevents Ronald Moore from dishing the ball--which is his forte--this game should be manageable for the Boilers. Siena is not a terribly good outside shooting team (32 percent on the year). If they settle for jump shots, this game will not be nearly as trendy as most of the U.S. thinks.

5. West Virginia will make it to the title game.

Of the Mountaineers' six losses, none are to bad teams (well, save for Notre Dame, which really isn't that great of a team...ND's defense is as porous as they come). Their main free-throw shooters hover around 73 percent, which is more than sufficient for those late games that will be mired in clock-stoppage fouls. And most importantly, West Virginia--in addition to its efficient offense--has a decent path to the title. Kentucky and New Mexico are the two biggest deterrents to their Final Four run, but the run-and-gun of Kentucky and UNM can be easily matched by Da'Sean Butler, Kevin Jones, and Devin Eubanks--all of whom pursue rebounds as well as anyone in the country. West Virginia's overbearing frontcourt will no doubt be the make or break of their run.