You've been forewarned: A mid-major perfect storm looms on the horizon

By Matt Vachlon

Granted the brackets aren't out yet and obviously we won't know specific matchups until later this evening. But like Bob, I just couldn't help myself anymore. After watching the carnage that has occurred in the Big Six conferences during "Championship Week," one thing has become abundantly clear:

If you're a fan of Butler, or any other mid-major, you should be licking your chops at the prospect of who you might face in this year's NCAA tournament.

For starters, there has been a baffling amount of mediocrity with regard to the pool of at-large candidates. But the major networks have already given too much attention to this ineptness. The fact of the matter is a lot of winning has been going on around the country and the media hasn't taken notice yet.

As of today, 14 regular season champions or co-champions from one-bid leagues have won their their league's automatic bid. And three more from possible two-bid leagues are in a position to earn at-large births.

So why does this matter?

For starters, regular season champions qualifying mean better overall teams making the tournament. These teams have been solid over the long haul, as opposed to simply getting hot over a four-day stretch. Thus, it's reasonable to believe they can put up a better fight against the big boys. But there's also historical precedent to suggest their success as well.

I looked back at the five Cinderella stories that stood out in my mind the most since I began following college basketball. Each was at least a double-digit seed and each went at least as far as the Sweet 16. The candidates were 1998-1999 Gonzaga (10 seed), 2001-2002 Kent State (10), 2002-2003 Butler (12), 2005-2006 George Mason (11) and 2007-2008 Davidson (10).

The results were that all five were either the outright or co-champions of their league in the regular season. All except Butler made it at least as far as the Elite Eight. While three of those five did win their conference tournaments, George Mason did not, but, the Patriots are the only one of the bunch to make the Final Four.

The correlation to this year is that Butler (5 seed) and Northern Iowa (7) are projected to be much higher than those "Cinderella" teams of years past. Old Dominion (10), Cornell (11) and Siena (12) are also in the mix, along with at-large candidates Gonzaga (7), UTEP (9) and Utah State (11).

Adding to this advantage is the fact that the teams at the top of the major conferences have shown chinks in their armor this week as well. We've already seen two conference co-champs, Michigan State and Maryland, lose in conference quarterfinals and even Kansas, Kentucky, Duke and Ohio St. have let inferior of opponents hang around. And don't forget the chaos that occurred in the Big East.

If there's one thing March Madness proves to us each year is that it's far from predictable. But if next weekend you find yourself wanting to tear up your bracket because of all the Cinderellas, well, don't say I didn't warn you.