A closer look at this year's Cinderella candidates

By Matt Vachlon

I wrote in this space last week that mid-majors had a chance to put a major stamp on this tournament and lo and behold, 11 of the 32 second round spots are currently occupied by teams from outside the power six conferences.

Now, I could simply use this week’s entry as a means to gloat about my amazing ability to predict the future, but to do so would be neither productive nor honest, as, truth be told, I only had 21 out of the 32 first round games picked correctly. Needless to say my bracket is pretty much garbage and since yours likely is too, I won’t waste anymore time discussing brackets.

Instead, I’ll focus on \ the remaining Cinderella teams and I’ll reevaluate their chances at advancing farther into the tournament. It’s worth noting that in my previous entry, I only acknowledged double-digit seeds as true Cinderella teams. Thus, my analysis will not include New Mexico, Butler, Xavier, BYU or Gonzaga. I will, however, amend my sample to include 9-seed Northern Iowa since the Panthers are technically underdogs for the entire tournament as well, based on seeding projections.

Thus we are left with six potential Cinderellas:

(Note: All offensive and defensive efficiency statistics were taken from kenpom.com):

1. Northern Iowa (9 seed, Midwest Region; First round defeated No. 8 (seed) UNLV 69-66; Next up: vs. No. 1 Kansas)

The Panthers certainly fit my criteria of a team that could make a deep run. They won the Missouri Valley regular season title and bring an impressive 29-4 record into the game against Kansas. The problem is the Jayhawks are the No. 1 overall seed. And Northern Iowa is a nine. Add the fact that Kansas is in the Top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and that should more than offset any defensive advantage that the Panthers might have brought into this game. Although I believe they will slow the Jayhawks down, I simply can’t see any way that Northern Iowa pulls this one out.

2. Saint Mary’s (10 seed, South Region; First round defeated No. 7 Richmond 80-71; Next up: vs. No. 2 Villanova)

The Gaels may not have been a regular season conference champion, but they certainly should present a matchup problem for Villanova. Center Omar Samhan makes Saint Mary’s click and at 6’ 11” he towers over many of the regulars for the Wildcats. Both teams are almost mirror images on the offensive and defensive ends and, as a result, it will likely come down to whether ‘Nova can get Samhan into any type of foul trouble. I think Saint Mary’s certainly has a shot, but ultimately I think Villanova’s previous tournament experience will pay off for them.

3. Old Dominion (11 seed, South Region; First round defeated No. 6 Notre Dame 51-50; Next up: vs. No. 3 Baylor)

Old Dominion presents a special case since they hail from the same league as George Mason and have the same seed that the Patriots had during their historic run to the Final Four in 2006. The Monarchs matchup with Baylor should be interesting as both teams have similar strengths. Old Dominion is outstanding on the offensive glass ranking No. 1 overall according to KenPom, but the Bears are no slouches either as they rank in the Top 30. Both teams are also solid defensively, but the game should be decided by three-point shooting as Baylor generally excels at it, while Old Dominion does not. If the Monarchs do pull it out, they would seem to match up favorably with both Villanova or Saint Mary’s in the next round.

4. Cornell (12 seed, East Region; First round defeated No. 5 Temple 78-65; Next up: vs. No. 4 Wisconsin)

On paper, this would seem to be a tough matchup for Cornell as Wisconsin ranks third in KenPom’s overall rankings. However, the Big Red took Kansas (Pomeroy’s No. 2 team) down to the wire in Lawrence back in January and the Badgers certainly are not a threat to run them out of the building. While Wisconsin is solid defensively, Cornell is outstanding from behind the arc and also takes pretty good care of the basketball. I think Cornell has the best chance of all the mid-major underdogs of getting through this round and I have a gut feeling they’ll get it done.

5. Murray State (13 seed, West Region; First round defeated No. 4 Vanderbilt 66-65; Next up vs. No. 5 Butler)

Given the first-round statement made by Butler this game has flown under the radar a bit. However, Murray State has won 31 games this season and provides an interesting stylistic matchup for the Bulldogs. On paper they are a poor man’s version of Butler (Top 50 vs. Top 15 defensively and Top 70 vs. Top 50 offensively), but the Racers have six players who can score and this could potentially cause matchup problems for Butler. However, Murray State struggles with turnovers more so than UTEP did and I’ll believe that they can speed up the game on Butler when I see it. I expect the Bulldogs to win a closer than expected game.

6. Ohio (14 seed, Midwest Region; First round defeated No. 3 Georgetown 97-83; Next up vs. No. 6 Tennessee)

There was no bigger surprise in the first round than Ohio shocking the Hoyas. After finishing in ninth place in the Mid American Conference, the Bobcats flew under everyone’s radar. While a 14 seed has only advanced to the Sweet 16 twice, it is worth noting that both times it occurred against a 6 seed. And while Tennessee ranks No. 8 defensively, they are less than impressive on the offensive end. Although it goes against almost all the criteria I stated last week, if Armon Bassett can once catch fire for Ohio, a second upset is not out of the realm of possibility.

You've been forewarned: A mid-major perfect storm looms on the horizon

By Matt Vachlon

Granted the brackets aren't out yet and obviously we won't know specific matchups until later this evening. But like Bob, I just couldn't help myself anymore. After watching the carnage that has occurred in the Big Six conferences during "Championship Week," one thing has become abundantly clear:

If you're a fan of Butler, or any other mid-major, you should be licking your chops at the prospect of who you might face in this year's NCAA tournament.

For starters, there has been a baffling amount of mediocrity with regard to the pool of at-large candidates. But the major networks have already given too much attention to this ineptness. The fact of the matter is a lot of winning has been going on around the country and the media hasn't taken notice yet.

As of today, 14 regular season champions or co-champions from one-bid leagues have won their their league's automatic bid. And three more from possible two-bid leagues are in a position to earn at-large births.

So why does this matter?

For starters, regular season champions qualifying mean better overall teams making the tournament. These teams have been solid over the long haul, as opposed to simply getting hot over a four-day stretch. Thus, it's reasonable to believe they can put up a better fight against the big boys. But there's also historical precedent to suggest their success as well.

I looked back at the five Cinderella stories that stood out in my mind the most since I began following college basketball. Each was at least a double-digit seed and each went at least as far as the Sweet 16. The candidates were 1998-1999 Gonzaga (10 seed), 2001-2002 Kent State (10), 2002-2003 Butler (12), 2005-2006 George Mason (11) and 2007-2008 Davidson (10).

The results were that all five were either the outright or co-champions of their league in the regular season. All except Butler made it at least as far as the Elite Eight. While three of those five did win their conference tournaments, George Mason did not, but, the Patriots are the only one of the bunch to make the Final Four.

The correlation to this year is that Butler (5 seed) and Northern Iowa (7) are projected to be much higher than those "Cinderella" teams of years past. Old Dominion (10), Cornell (11) and Siena (12) are also in the mix, along with at-large candidates Gonzaga (7), UTEP (9) and Utah State (11).

Adding to this advantage is the fact that the teams at the top of the major conferences have shown chinks in their armor this week as well. We've already seen two conference co-champs, Michigan State and Maryland, lose in conference quarterfinals and even Kansas, Kentucky, Duke and Ohio St. have let inferior of opponents hang around. And don't forget the chaos that occurred in the Big East.

If there's one thing March Madness proves to us each year is that it's far from predictable. But if next weekend you find yourself wanting to tear up your bracket because of all the Cinderellas, well, don't say I didn't warn you.